AP News: Clyburn’s discussion of a ‘mini-primary’ fuels more talk of whether Biden should end his campaign.

[NOTE: My first post on the great debate fallout freakout (After the Debate: Keep Calm. Chill the [Bleep] Out. Head Down, Beat Trump.) was posted on June 29.

That was less than a week ago, but it seems like a month or two. The  key question that came up for me in the immediate aftermath was simple:

What Will Jim Clyburn say?

Clyburn, the senior Black member of the U.S House, essentially saved Biden’s campaign in 2020. Would (and could?)  he do it again?

His first comment was staunchly supportive: On the morning after the debate debacle, he compared Biden’s performance to “strike one” in baseball; not good, but not yet a “strikeout.” He told people to “chill out.” Sounded like he was on board, and I think he was.

But Clyburn didn’t get to be where he is by blind loyalty; his input may be crucial, but it’s not the only factor in a fast-moving political upheaval. He, like other insiders, was watching to see what happened on several other fronts:

— What would other key Democratic officials do? Would they be diving off what seemed like a sinking ship? As of July 4th, a few have; but from here,on July 4  it looks like a leak, but not a flood. Just as important was another question:

— What about the money? You can’t buy the presidency (as Michael Bloomberg learned in 2020, after a campaign that spent a billion dollars-plus, and won only the mini-primary in American Samoa). But you can’t make a serious run without hundreds of millions in the bank. Biden had been doing well, especially with the Democratic billionaires. But are they now choking off the golden spigots?

A few have, and there are ominous signs, especially  from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Revered as a wizard in herding the House Democratic cats; Pelosi also excelled in the Speaker’s other most important (but less publicly-known) role, namely raising hundreds of millions for the House Dems’ reelection campaigns. 

One who hasn’t dived off the Biden campaign ship is former rival Bernie Sanders, who called earlier this week for voters to consider Biden’s plight with “maturity”: “A presidential election is not a Grammy Award contest for the best singer or entertainer. It’s about who has the best policies that impact our lives,” Sanders said. “I’m going to do everything I can to see that Biden gets reelected.”

When Pelosi told a interviewer that “I think it’s a legitimate question to say, ‘Is this an episode or is this a condition’” Adding, “When people ask that question it’s completely legitimate – of both candidates.” (Both candidates, sure — but is any MAGA heavyweight going to take advice from her?) Behind her query I thought I heard another  in the background: “Will the big donors keep paying for a ‘condition'”?

Good question, with the answer not yet clear, but the omens are ominous. Then there are, like clouds of mosquitoes on humid summer days–

–The polls. The early ones point to a decline in Biden’s standing; but they’re also controversial, some no better than daily horoscopes, and in any case they’re snapshots of sentiment over a single day or two, and can change like the weather. But don’t worry — there will be more, practically every day.

And last, but maybe not least, there are

–The chattering classes. Pundits, prognosticators, podcasters and battalions of sidelined political operators seem to have decided that the debate fail has cooked Biden’s goose, and –having  dumped Vice President Kamala Harris a thousand times a day in the interim– seem to be finally facing up to the horrifying (to them) prospect that if Biden does step down, she’s probably the only plausible successor with a chance to win a national race.  If pundits ran the Electoral College, it would all be over now, and president Hillary would be coasting through her second term, with all her programs upheld by the 8 women justices on her Supreme Court. And meanwhile

— Biden says (as of Thursday, July 4), he’s not going anywhere, except to take more naps.

But back to the original question: Jim Clyburn, reading these (and more) tea leaves, has become more equivocal. On July 3 after an interview, CNN said he

“sent a resounding message to the president and elected officials across the nation that it may be time to move on.

Clyburn, a Biden campaign co-chair, outlined a process to replace Biden during an interview with CNN. Should Biden step aside, Clyburn said, he expects a “mini-primary” featuring Vice President Kamala Harris, governors and others in the run-up to the Democratic National Convention in August.

“You can actually fashion the process that’s already in place to make it a mini-primary and I would support that,” said Clyburn, who also spoke to Biden on Wednesday in a conversation his office refused to discuss.

Clyburn’s decision to spell out in detail how Biden might be replaced was viewed as a clarion call by some top donors, party insiders and even members of Biden’s campaign who increasingly believe that the 81-year-old president will be forced to step aside following a debate performance that shook the party’s confidence in his ability to defeat Republican former President Donald Trump in November.”

Later Clyburn had a spokesperson walk back the talk, saying it was all hypothetical: “The congressman fully supports this president at the top of the ticket and it would be irresponsible to report anything otherwise.”

Well, hypothetical, maybe. A senior congressman with as much savvy and experience as Clyburn also knows when to hedge his bets and get ready for change he may not want but can’t avoid.

Now you can read the Associated Press report on all this below, and make your own judgment. But be prepared for big changes, expected and unexpected.

AP News: Clyburn’s discussion of a ‘mini-primary’ fuels more talk of whether Biden should end his campaign

BY STEVE PEOPLES— July 3, 2024
NEW YORK (AP) — He is often credited as the man who delivered the Democratic nomination to Joe Biden with a pivotal endorsement four years ago.

But on Wednesday, Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., sent a resounding message to the president and elected officials across the nation that it may be time to move on.

Clyburn, a Biden campaign co-chair, outlined a process to replace Biden during an interview with CNN. Should Biden step aside, Clyburn said, he expects a “mini-primary” featuring Vice President Kamala Harris, governors and others in the run-up to the Democratic National Convention in August.

“You can actually fashion the process that’s already in place to make it a mini-primary and I would support that,” said Clyburn, who also spoke to Biden on Wednesday in a conversation his office refused to discuss.

Clyburn’s decision to spell out in detail how Biden might be replaced was viewed as a clarion call by some top donors, party insiders and even members of Biden’s campaign who increasingly believe that the 81-year-old president will be forced to step aside following a debate performance that shook the party’s confidence in his ability to defeat Republican former President Donald Trump in November.

The extraordinary remarks echoed throughout the private conversations of donors, Democratic National Committee members and even Biden’s campaign staff, according to multiple participants who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive discussions. In response to Clyburn’s latest comments, at least one member of Biden’s finance committee predicted that the president would not survive the political crisis.

Indeed, the conversation among many insiders has begun to shift from whether Biden should stay in the race to the logistics of his departure.

Clyburn spokesperson Brianna Frias later clarified that he was responding to a hypothetical question and not trying to restart the nomination contest.

“He was not calling for a ‘mini primary,’” Frias said. ”Instead, he was explaining the existing process. The congressman fully supports this president at the top of the ticket and it would be irresponsible to report anything otherwise.”

A significant group of party insiders wants the incumbent president to stay in the race, believing he remains the party’s best hope to defeat Trump.

“I’m for Joe Biden. I encourage Joe Biden to continue to run for president and I believe that he will be reelected,” said Dick Harpootlian, a South Carolina state senator and Biden supporter. “Even in this weakened condition, I do believe he will beat Donald Trump.”

Clyburn’s comment came a day after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent shockwaves across the party by raising questions about Biden’s fitness to serve. “It’s a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?” Pelosi said on MSNBC.

Biden vowed on Wednesday to stay in the race.

“I am running. I am the leader of the Democratic Party. No one is pushing me out,” Biden said in a call with staffers on his reelection campaign, according to a top aide who posted his comment on the X social media platform.

Privately, however, Biden’s allies shared increasing concern that he would undermine their chances to win the House and the Senate if he’s on the ballot this fall. And top donors fear that Biden’s fundraising, while strong in June, will slow considerably this month, especially among high-dollar donors.

New polling also shows warning signs.

Trump had a slight lead over Biden in two polls of voters conducted after the debate. But one of the polls — conducted by SSRS for CNN — found that three-quarters of voters, including more than half of Democratic voters, said the party has a better chance of winning the presidency in November with a candidate other than Biden.

Around 7 in 10 voters — and 45% of Democrats — said that Biden’s physical and mental ability is a reason to vote against him.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of Democratic officials believe that Harris should be the favorite to replace Biden. Those involved in private discussions also acknowledge that California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer remain viable alternatives.

But for some insiders, Harris is viewed as the only nominee who would quickly unify the party and avoid a messy and divisive convention fight.

Clyburn, who described Biden’s debate performance as “concerning,” said in a MSNBC interview on Tuesday that he would support Harris if Biden were to step aside.

“This party should not in any way do anything to work around Ms. Harris,” Clyburn said. “We should do everything we can to bolster her whether she’s in second place or at the top of the ticket.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign cheered on the Democratic dysfunction in a statement predicting victory.

“President Trump will beat any Democrat on Nov. 5 because he has a proven record and an agenda to Make America Great Again,” said senior advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.

___

Associated Press writers Lisa Mascaro in Washington, Meg Kinnard in Charlotte and Jill Colvin in New York contributed.