Category Archives: The War In Winter

Spring in Ukraine: Time for An Offensive/Counter-offensive?

[Note: Some said it would happen in winter; it didn’t. Some now say it will happen soon, in spring. Some say of it, wait & see.

”It” is a Ukrainian counter-offensive. Ukraine’s war goal is to get Russian forces out of all its claimed territory.  To win, they’ll have to push them out. That would require a massive counter-offensive.
Continue reading Spring in Ukraine: Time for An Offensive/Counter-offensive?

Gwynne Dyer On Ukraine Peace Prospects

Ukraine: Peace —  Not So Soon

MONDAY’S stunt, where Yevgeny Prigozhin held a Russian flag in his hands and declared that his ‘Wagner’ mercenary soldiers have finally conquered the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, probably marks the end of Russian winter offensive.

It was just a charade, of course. The footage was shot at night, in front of a nondescript administration building that signifies nothing in particular. Even Prigozhin admitted that it was only a victory “from a legal point of view”, i.e. he was standing on a street-corner that he wanted us to believe – well, wanted Russians to believe was really Bakhmut city’s centre.
The Russian mercenary “Wagner” group shows its flag, and claims it has taken Bachmut. Observers including Dyer say it’s fake.

Continue reading Gwynne Dyer On Ukraine Peace Prospects

Ukraine, Year Two: A Pair of Particularly Pointed Perspectives — Liz Sly & Gwynne Dyer: Escalation

Washington Post — February 22, 2023

By Liz Sly

Year of war
: A global divide on the Ukraine war is deepening
Russia capitalizes on disillusionment with the United States to win sympathy in the Global South.

JOHANNESBURG — Clement Manyathela, who hosts a popular and influential talk show on South Africa’s Radio 702, remembers the outrage he felt when Russian troops first surged into Ukraine. He had believed Russia’s insistence that it wasn’t planning to attack and felt cheated when war broke out.
“We were lied to,” he said.
 Continue reading Ukraine, Year Two: A Pair of Particularly Pointed Perspectives — Liz Sly & Gwynne Dyer: Escalation

New Years Ukraine Combat Update


Anger in Russia as scores of troops killed in one of war’s deadliest strikes

Reuters — January 1, 2023

• Third straight night of attacks signals new Russian tactic
• Kyiv says Russian strikes are failing
• Scores of Russian troops reported dead in barracks blast
• Stern Putin New Year speech signals no let-up
• Zelenskiy says Ukraine stands united

Russia acknowledged on Monday that scores of its troops were killed in one of the Ukraine war’s deadliest strikes, drawing demands from nationalist bloggers for commanders to be punished for housing soldiers alongside an ammunition dump. Continue reading New Years Ukraine Combat Update

Global Warming? Coal Usage Sets New Record Anyway

AP News: Report: World’s coal use creeps to new high in 2022

December 16, 2022

BERLIN (AP) — Coal use across the world is set to reach a new record this year amid persistently high demand for the heavily polluting fossil fuel, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

The Paris-based agency said in a new report that while coal use grew by only 1.2% in 2022, the increase pushed it to all all-time high of more than 8 billion metric tons, beating the previous record set in 2013.

“The world’s coal consumption will remain at similar levels in the following years in the absence of stronger efforts to accelerate the transition to clean energy,” the agency said, noting that “robust demand” in emerging Asian economies would offset declining use in mature markets.

“This means coal will continue to be the global energy system’s largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions by far,” the IAE said.

The use of coal and other fossil fuels needs to be cut drastically to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) this century. Experts say the ambitious target, which governments agreed to in the 2015 Paris climate accord, will be hard to meet given that average temperatures worldwide have already risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times.
The IEA said higher prices for natural gas due to Russia’s war in Ukraine have led to increased reliance on coal for generating power.

“The world is close to a peak in fossil fuel use, with coal set to be the first to decline, but we are not there yet,” Keisuke Sadamori, the agency’s director of energy markets and security, said.

Coal use is likely to decline as countries deploy more renewable energy sources, he said.

But China, the world’s biggest consumer of coal, said recently that it plans to boost production through 2025 to avoid a repeat of last year’s power shortages. And in Europe, which is scrambling to replace Russian energy supplies following the invasion of Ukraine, somecountries have re-opened shuttered coal-fired power plants.

In an effort to curb growing coal use in emerging economies, South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam have signed investment agreements with rich partner countries over the past year that will help them boost efforts to shift to renewable sources such as wind and solar.







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