New Nordic Math: NATO+ Finland & Sweden = VLAD’s Ukraine Boomerang

Opinion: Thanks, Vladimir Putin, for greatly strengthening NATO

From Max Boot
 – May 17, 2022, in The Washington Post

. . . The unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine has given the [NATO] alliance a new lease on life, making it more politically united and militarily formidable than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

. . . Sweden and Finland, which have long maintained their neutrality, are declaring their desire to join the alliance. . . .

With Sweden and Finland as members, NATO will hit the strategic jackpot. Admitting them to NATO isn’t an act of charity. They are formidable military powers in their own right that can substantially contribute to deterring further Russian aggression.

Finland has a massive artillery force of 1,500 cannons along with F-18 fighter jets, multiple launch rocket systems, armored howitzers, a variety of precision-guided munitions and other high-tech systems. Helsinki is increasing its defense spending and recently finalized a deal to buy 64 F-35 fighters. Its active duty military is small (only 22,000 personnel), but it maintains conscription and can quickly mobilize 280,000 troops — a far larger force than what Russia sent into Ukraine.

The Kremlin made all sorts of threats to dissuade Finland from joining NATO, but the Finns aren’t deterred. They remember the heavy losses they inflicted on Russian invaders in the 1939-1940 Winter War and are not impressed by the poor performance of the Russian military in Ukraine. Finland was even prepared for a cut off of Russian electricity that began on Saturday. Seeing that his bluster wasn’t working, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was already backing away from his threats on Monday.

Sweden has roughly twice Finland’s population and a larger defense budget but a smaller military, with an active-duty force of 24,000 and only 31,800 reserves.

But Stockholm is also increasing defense spending and expanding its armed forces. Its air force has ordered 204 of the domestically produced, top-of-the-line JAS 39 Gripen fighter aircraft. Sweden also manufactures quiet diesel submarines, and its navy plans to increase its submarine fleet from four to five while also buying new corvettes.

Sweden’s most important asset may be the island of Gotland, an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle of the Baltic Sea. With Gotland as a NATO base, the Baltic can become a NATO lake, just as British control of Malta turned the Mediterranean into an Allied lake in World War II.

NATO planners have long feared that, in a war, it would be hard to resupply Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania because of all the weapons systems that Moscow has stockpiled in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania. Having Sweden and Finland in the alliance is a game changer and tilts the Northern battlefield in NATO’s favor.
 . . .

Finland, Sweden & Russia. Source: CIA

The Baltic republics are particularly vulnerable because they are adjacent to Russia and have their own populations of Russian speakers, whose presence gives Putin a built-in excuse for aggression.
 . . .

The supreme irony, of course, is that Putin justified his attack on Ukraine by claiming that Russia could not have another NATO state on its border — even though Ukraine was not going to be admitted to the alliance.

Now Russia’s border with NATO will triple, from 316 to 952 miles. Putin has no one but himself to blame.

Good going, Vlad. Thank you for strengthening NATO. If only the price, measured in Ukrainian pain and suffering, weren’t so high.

3 thoughts on “New Nordic Math: NATO+ Finland & Sweden = VLAD’s Ukraine Boomerang”

  1. We have such selective memories.

    Right now the CBC is discussing whether we should have normal sporting relations with Iran given the shooting down of a civilian airline on route to Canada, quite forgetting that the near war level tensions in Iran at that time were consequence of Trump murdering the Iranian general Soleimani (commander of the Quds Force and right hand man to the leader of Iran) while on a well publicised peace mission to Iraq. That murder was reportedly for no better reason than the hope that it would increase Trump’s chances of being re-elected.

    This article talks about “The unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine” quite forgetting that Joe Biden orchestrated a coup in Ukraine in 2014 that thwarted democratic elections there, and immediately resulted in an eight year civil war. It is that civil war; the repeatedly stated security concerns consequence of US involvment in Ukraines internal affairs; the deploying missiles on Russia’s borders; and inviting Ukraine to join NATO, that are the provoked reasons for Russia’s invasion.

    No one is saying that Russia gave the US a week to respond to its repeatedly expressed security concerns and red lines (warning of its intent to resolve the dispute by military means if not addressed), during which time the US did nothing, before invading Ukraine.

    This was a provoked war.

    If one is opposed to war then surely one should speak truth to power about the root causes of war. Historically, an important characteristic of Quaker opposition to war was their neutrality when offering aid and comfort in war zones. This was in part consequence of recognising that there was that of God in all.

  2. Gee whiz, Chuck. The military assets you mentioned for Sweden and Norway sound suspiciously like American weapons.

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