[NOTE: Henry Olsen is a very conservative columnist; I would typically not look to him for political counsel.
Even so,there’s one politician Olsen likely understands much better than I could ever hope to, namely: Mike Pence.
And in this piece, Olsen offers the former Veep what seems like very sage counsel: if Pence wants to be president, his only feasible path forward involves confronting his old boss, 45, head-on.
Sure, all the numbers now forecast that Pence would lose such a fight. Yet in doing so, Pence likely has the best chance to reclaim a sector of the Republican base from 45’s destructive spell — maybe not a large one, but enough to doom Trump’s own chances of reclaiming the White House.
If he could do that, Pence’s political loss would become the second landmark to secure the place in U. S. history that he carved out on January 6.
On that grim day, as he was whisked from the besieged Capitol just ahead of a no-kidding lynch mob, it appeared to be an inglorious exit. In fact it was a high point — indeed, the highest point — of his career.
Fatally wounding Trump in an open primary struggle, however uphill, would be another signal triumph by sacrifice.
If that sounds like a paradox or an oxymoron, Olsen points out that exactly such is at the core of Pence’s intense religious belief system. As the Teacher said: “For whoever wants to save their life will lose it, but whoever loses their life for me will find it.” (Matthew 16:25)
Will Pence do it? I hope so, though who can say? But I do know this: Mike Pence doesn’t listen to advice from the liberal likes of me.
But he does listen, I’m pretty sure, to Henry Olsen.]
Washington Post: Mike Pence’s only path to the White House is through Trump
Opinion by Henry Olsen — December 29, 2022
Mike Pence is an uncommonly decent and principled public servant. In a Hollywood movie, grateful Americans would elevate the former vice president to the White House for his courageous rejection of President Donald Trump’s entreaties to ignore the Constitution on Jan. 6, 2021.
In reality, however, Pence faces a bleak political future. In fact, it seems the only way he might be able to salvage his career is by doing what he fears most: battling Trump directly.
Polls for the 2024 Republican presidential fight consistently show Pence running a poor third to Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Pence’s standing with Republicans is just as bad in hypothetical matchups that don’t include Trump. He trailed DeSantis, for example, by 43 percentage points in an Echelon Insights survey in October. Pence even finished third in a recent poll of Republicans in his home state of Indiana.
It’s easy to see Pence’s problem. His favorability ratings among Republicans were roughly identical with Trump’s until Jan. 6, but they sharply plummeted and trended downward throughout 2021 as Trump repeated his election lies. Pence’s favorability has since recovered somewhat, but it remains 20 points behind Trump’s among Republicans.
Pence thus faces a nearly impossible task if he wants to become president. He must first convince DeSantis backers that he is a better choice. That will be hard to do: GOP voters today want a fighter, a profile that the pugnacious DeSantis has excelled at projecting.
Pence, on the other hand, exudes a calm and mild demeanor. That was the sweet spot for the pre-Trump GOP, which preferred sober leaders such as Bob Dole and Mitt Romney to firebrands. But those days are gone, and Pence can’t change his character to fit the times.
Even if he somehow managed to surpass DeSantis, Pence would then have to defeat his former boss, Trump, in a one-on-one matchup. He can’t do that on the issues, given the lack of policy differences between the two. (In fact, Pence often refers to his time as vice president as serving in the “Trump-Pence administration.”)
Instead, Pence would have to persuade MAGA Republicans to switch to him by attacking Trump for his character and his post-2020 behavior. That frontal assault is something Pence has long tried to avoid.
Pence would have faced these challenges even if he hadn’t defied Trump on Jan. 6. A November 2020 poll asking Republican voters whom they might consider in a 2024 GOP race showed Pence second to Trump but only a few points ahead of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. That same poll found that GOP voters’ No. 1 fear was that the next leader would not fight like Trump. A Trumpless campaign was always going to be difficult for the measured and buttoned-down Pence.
Pence’s 2024 chances, therefore, rest on him melding his character with the unique thing only he can bring to the race: his presence in the White House during and after the 2020 election. Few people can present in detail what Trump knew then, or should have known, and when he knew it.
Pence is one of them. He can authoritatively describe the reckless disregard Trump showed for his acolytes and American democracy as he pursued his scheme. And he can do what others should have tried to do for the past two years: convince Republicans that their former leader is a mendacious charlatan.
Pence certainly will not relish this task. The odds are heavily against success. Trump’s shamelessness works to his advantage in most political mudslinging contests; Pence’s decency weighs against him. If Pence concludes that the path to the White House goes through Trump’s character, he’ll probably shy away from the confrontation and fade away.
Pence is a deeply religious man, so he means it when he says he is giving “prayerful consideration” to a 2024 run. It is not his fault he has been given a poisoned chalice from which to drink, but he must know that only he can drink from this cup. He also knows that “greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends.”
If Pence finds the courage to meet his political fate, he would be putting country and party before himself — and might even find that a new political life awaits him.
Henry Olsen is a Washington Post columnist and a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.