#1–AP News: EXPLAINER: How important is a Russian retreat from Kherson?
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian officials said Friday that Ukrainian flags were appearing “en masse and all over the place,” in the wake of Russia’s retreat from the southern region of Kherson, one of the four regions in Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed in September.
The months–long Ukrainian offensive to recapture the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital that has been under Russian control since the early days of the invasion, is coming to a head. The fall of the city would deal another humiliation to Moscow after a string of battlefield defeats and other setbacks.
Here’s a look at what is happening and why Kherson is such an important city for both sides.
WHY IS THE CITY SUCH A PRIZE?
Kherson, which had a prewar population of 280,000, is the only regional capital to be captured by Russian forces. The city and surrounding areas fell into Moscow’s hands in the opening days of the war as Russian troops quickly pushed their attack north from the Crimean Peninsula — the region illegally annexed by the Kremlin in 2014.
Its loss was a major blow to Ukraine because of its location on the Dnieper River near the mouth of the Black Sea, and its role as a major industrial center. Ukrainian resistance fighters have challenged Russian troops for control of the city ever since, with acts of sabotage and assassinations of Moscow–appointed officials.
Kherson also sits at a point where Ukraine can cut off fresh water from the Dnieper to Crimea. Kyiv blocked those vital supplies after the Crimean Peninsula’s annexation, and Putin mentioned the need to restore them as one reason behind his decision to invade Ukraine.
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
In the last 24 hours, Ukrainian troops have made gains northwest, west and northeast of the city of Kherson, advancing up to 7 kilometers (4 miles) in some areas, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington–based think tank.
“Russians have moved to positions they hope will be easier to defend. Ukraine will have to decide whether, when, and how to keep pushing,” said Olga Oliker, director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group. “But Ukraine seems on the verge of taking back … and this is very good news for Mykolaiv, which Russia will now have a much harder time bombarding. It is a serious Ukrainian advance.”
Kherson’s Ukrainian–appointed regional official, Serhii Khlan said as Russia pulled its troops from the western bank of the river that divides the region, they have left wreckage in their wake, destroying key infrastructure, including power facilities and bridges.
”It will all have to be reconstructed,” he said Friday at a video briefing. “While fleeing, they were blowing up everything, everything that could deter the (Ukrainian) advance.”
Khlan advised civilians to stay home and said the humanitarian situation was really complicated, with power supplies cut off and very limited communications.
WHAT DOES THE KREMLIN SAY?
The Kremlin remained defiant Friday, insisting that battlefield developments in the Kherson region in no way represented an embarrassment for Putin.
Fearing such a major Ukrainian counterattack, the Kremlin–installed regional administration in Kherson reportedly relocated at least 70,000 residents earlier this month.
WHAT WOULD LOSING KHERSON MEAN FOR RUSSIA?
A retreat from Kherson and other areas on the Dnieper’s west bank would shatter Russian hopes to press an offensive west to Mykolaiv and Odesa to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Moscow had also hoped to build a land corridor to the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova, home to a major Russian military base.
“The loss of Kherson will turn all those southern dreams by the Kremlin into dust,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov. “Kherson is a key to the entire southern region, which would allow Ukraine to target key supply routes for the Russian forces. Russians will try to retain control of it using all means.”
WHAT WOULD RECAPTURING KHERSON MEAN FOR UKRAINE?
For Ukraine, capturing Kherson would set the stage for reclaiming the Russia–occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region and other areas in the south, and eventually pushing back into Crimea.
Reclaiming control of Kherson would also mean that Kyiv could again cut off water to Crimea.
“After the deoccupation of Kherson, the Russians will again have problems with fresh water in Crimea,” Zhdanov added.
WHAT WILL CHINA THINK?
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv–based Penta Center independent think tank, noted that controlling the Kherson region and other southern areas was a major prize for Russia and their loss would have painful consequences for Putin at home and abroad.
“If the Russians leave Kherson, the Kremlin will face another wave of fierce criticism of the military command and the authorities in general from ultra–patriotic circles,” Fesenko said, adding that the fall of the city would further demoralize Russia’s armed forces and possibly fuel opposition to the mobilization effort.
He also said China and India would see the fall of Kherson as a sign of Kremlin weakness.
“Putin will face reputational losses not only inside the country, but also in the eyes of China, and that could be particularly dangerous for the Kremlin,” Fesenko said.
DEMYDIV, Ukraine (AP) — Olga Lehan’s home near the Irpin River was flooded when Ukraine destroyed a dam to prevent Russian forces from storming the capital of Kyiv just days into the wa r. Weeks later, the water from her tap turned brown from pollution.
“It was not safe to drink,” she said of the tap water in her village of Demydiv, about 40 kilometers (24 miles) north of Kyiv on the tributary of the Dnieper River.
Visibly upset as she walked through her house, the 71–year–old pointed to where the high water in March had made her kitchen moldy, seeped into her well and ruined her garden.
Environmental damage from the 8–month–old war with Russia is mounting in more of the country, with experts warning of long–term consequences. Moscow’s attacks on fuel depots have released toxins into the air and groundwater, threatening biodiversity, climate stability and the health of the population.
Because of the war, more than 6 million Ukrainians have limited or no access to clean water, and more than 280,000 hectares (nearly 692,000 acres) of forests have been destroyed or felled, according to the World Wildlife Fund. It has caused more than $37 billion in environmental damage, according to the Audit Chamber, a nongovernmental group in the country.
“This pollution caused by the war will not go away. It will have to be solved by our descendants, to plant forests, or to clean the polluted rivers,” said Dmytro Averin, an environmental expert with Zoi Environment Network, a non–profit organization based in Switzerland.
While the hardest–hit areas are in the more industrial eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where fighting between government troops and pro–Russian separatists has been going on since 2014, he said, the damage has spread elsewhere.
“In addition to combat casualties, war is also hell on people’s health, physically and mentally,” said Rick Steiner, a U.S. environmental scientist who advised Lebanon’s government on environmental issues stemming from a monthlong war in 2006 between that country and Israel.
The health impact from contaminated water and exposure to toxins unleashed by conflict “may take years to manifest,” he said.
After the flood in Demydiv, residents said their tap water turned cloudy, tasted funny and left a film on pots and pans after cooking. The village was under Moscow’s control until April, when Russian troops withdrew after failing to take the capital.
Ukrainian authorities then began bringing in fresh water, but the shipments stopped in October when the tanker truck broke down, forcing residents to again drink the dirty water, they said.
“We don’t have another option. We don’t have money to buy bottles,” Iryna Stetcenko told The Associated Press. Her family has diarrhea and she’s concerned about the health of her two teenagers, she said.
In May, the government took samples of the water, but the results have not been released, said Vyacheslav Muga, the former acting head of the local government’s water service. The Food Safety and Consumer Protection agency in Kyiv has not yet responded to an AP request for the results.
Reports by other environmental groups, however, have shown the effects of the war.
In recent weeks, Russia has targeted key infrastructure like power plants and waterworks. But even in July, the U.N.’s environmental authority already was warning of significant damage to water infrastructure including pumping stations, purification plants and sewage facilities.
A soon–to–be–published paper by the Conflict and Environment Observatory, a British charity, and the Zoi Environment Network, found evidence of pollution at a pond after a Russian missile hit a fuel depot in the town of Kalynivka, about 30 kilometers (about 18 miles) southwest of Kyiv.
The pond, used for recreation as well as a fish farm, showed a high concentration of fuel oil and dead fish on the surface –– apparently from oil that had seeped into the water, A copy of the report was seen by the AP.
Nitrogen dioxide, which is released by burning fossil fuels, increased in areas west and southwest of Kyiv, according to an April report from REACH, a humanitarian research initiative that tracks information in areas affected by crisis, disaster and displacement. Direct exposure can cause skin irritation and burns, while chronic exposure can cause respiratory illness and harm vegetation, the report said.
Ukraine’s agriculture sector, a key part of its economy, also has been affected. Fires have damaged crops and livestock, burned thousands of hectares of forest and prevented farmers from completing the harvest, said Serhiy Zibtsev, forestry professor at Ukraine’s National University of Life and Environmental Sciences.
“The fires are so massive,” he said, adding that farmers “lost everything they were harvesting for winter.”
The government in Kyiv is providing assistance when it can.
In Demydiv and surrounding villages, flood victims were given the equivalent of $540 each, said Liliia Kalashnikova, deputy head of the nearby town of Dymer. She said the government would do everything it could to prevent long–term environmental effects, but she didn’t specify how.
Governments have an obligation to minimize environmental risks for the population, especially during war, said Doug Weir, research and policy director for the Conflict and Environment Observatory, a U.K.—based monitoring organization.
Some Ukrainians have already lost hope.
“I feel depressed — there’s water all around and under my house,” said Demydiv resident Tatiana Samoilenko. “I don’t see much changing in the future.”