[Note: the sudden about face of Finland & Sweden away from their longtime neutral stance to seek Nato membership was for me like a double lightning strike: I’ve never visited either one, but could see they knew Russia up close, and through hard experience. For that matter, it was clear neither nation was a shrinking violet: both had serious, sizable defense forces. But the sudden invasion of Ukraine, as described below, radically upended decades of preparedness and planning. It also sent shock waves far away, shattering assumptions right here, in my cozy armchair. Nine months later, the shocks continue.]
Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US
Speaking in Sydney, Marin says Europe needs to build its own defence capabilities and says Finland is preparing for cyber-attacks from Russia
Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin has called for Europe to build its own defence capabilities in the wake of the war in Ukraine, saying that without US help it is not resilient enough.
“We should make sure that we are stronger,” Marin said in Sydney on Friday. “And I’ll be brutally honest with you, Europe isn’t strong enough. We would be in trouble without the United States.”
Her remarks came in response to a question about China’s responsibility to “rein in Russia”. Marin said that while China could play a role, “We shouldn’t only rely on that.”
Marin insisted Ukraine must be given “whatever it takes” to win the war, adding that the United States had been pivotal in supplying Kyiv with the weapons, finance and humanitarian aid necessary to blunt Russia’s advance.
“We have to make sure that we are also building those capabilities when it comes to European defence, the European defence industry, and making sure that we could cope in different kinds of situations,” she said.
Marin said that when Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, the priority of most Finns changed “overnight” to security.
Until Russia invaded Ukraine, Finland’s priorities were to have working bilateral relations with Russia and be close partners with members of Nato, but not be a member, she said. “That was the best way to secure our nation.”
Finland and Sweden applied to join the alliance in May, but are waiting on Turkey and Hungary to ratify their requests, which have been approved by the other 28 nations in the group. In June, Putin warned that if Nato installed military infrastructure in Finland and Sweden, Moscow “would be obliged to respond symmetrically and raise the same threats for those territories where threats have arisen for us”.
Asked what the likeliest scenario was in terms of threats posed by Russia to Finland, with which it shares a 1,300km border, Marin said: “We have extensive military forces, so we’re not expecting them to engage in that account and we’re not seeing any military action near the Finnish border.”
“But of course we are prepared for different kind of hybrid attacks that we might see.”
“We are preparing for different kinds of cyber-attacks … we’re preparing for different kinds of hybrid attacks, for misinformation.”
Between February and late October, cyber-attacks on “critical targets” in Finland increased by a third, according to a recent article by Finnish broadcaster YLE citing Aapo Cederberg, the CEO ofCyberwatch Finland.
In August, Russian hackers claimed responsibility for a denial-of-service attack on Finland’s parliamentary website, as well as another Finnish state website, writing on Telegram that it had, “decided to make a ‘friendly’ visit to neighbouring Finland, whose authorities are so eager to join Nato”, YLE reported.
In September, Antti Pelttari, the director of Supo, the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service, warned that, “We consider it highly likely that Russia will turn to the cyber environment over the winter.”
October alone saw what would previously have been three months’ worth of denial-of-service attacks, Trafficom, the Finnish transport and communications agency reported.
Concerned by the prospect of other hybrid attacks including weaponised mass migration, Finland’s main political parties have backed a proposal to build a fence along parts of the country’s border with Russia.
The country is also concerned about large-scale illegal crossings as Russian men flee the mobilisation drive. About 40,000 Russians have entered Finland since the start of the war, according to foreign minister, Pekka Haavisto.
Finland recently suspended tourist visas for Russian citizens. On Friday, Marin said, “It became morally unacceptable to allow the Russian middle and upper classes to continue to enjoy their vacations in Europe while their army kills, tortures and terrorises Ukrainians.”
Finland, which has a population of 5.5 million, still has military conscription for men, and has a wartime troop strength of 280,000, with 870,000 trained as reservists. It spend 2% of GDP on defence, a higher proportion than most Nato members. The country fought two wars against Russia in the 1940s, in which 100,000 Finns died.
“Our story after the wars, when we gained our independence, is a successful one,” she said. “We have to make sure that Ukrainians have that hope, that they will have that future.”
Background:
Finns are ready to fight any Russian attack, says armed forces chief: its military is heavily armed, big & well-trained
Gen Timo Kivinen says Nato applicant is prepared and motivated to defend against neighbour and would be ‘tough bite’ to chew
Finland has prepared for decades for a Russian attack and would put up stiff resistance should one occur, its armed forces chief has said.
The Nordic country has built up a substantial arsenal. But aside from the military hardware, Gen Timo Kivinen said, a crucial factor is that Finns would be motivated to fight.
“The most important line of defence is between one’s ears, as the war in Ukraine proves at the moment,” Kivinen said in an interview.
Finland fought two wars in the 1940s against its eastern neighbour, with which it shares a 1,300-km (810-mile) border.
Once a non-aligned country, it is now applying to join the Nato military alliance over concerns that Russia could invade like it did Ukraine on 24 February. Since the second world war, Helsinki has kept up a high level of military preparedness.
“We have systematically developed our military defence precisely for this type of warfare that is being waged there [in Ukraine], with a massive use of firepower, armoured forces and also air forces,” Kivinen said. “Ukraine has been a tough bite to chew [for Russia], and so would be Finland.“
A hundred thousand Finns were killed during the two wars Finland fought against the Soviet Union, and it lost a tenth of its territory.
The nation of 5.5 million has a wartime troop strength of 280,000, with 870,000 trained as reservists. It did not abolish military conscription for males as many other western nations did after the end of the cold war.
It has also built one of Europe’s strongest artillery arsenals and stocked up on cruise missiles with a range of up to 370km (230 miles). It spends 2% of its GDP on defence, a level higher than many Nato countries.
It is ordering four new warships, as well as 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US defence giant Lockheed Martin. It plans to order up to 2,000 drones and deploy its own high-altitude anti-aircraft equipment, and is building barriers on its border with Russia.
82% of respondents in an 18 May poll by the defence ministry said they would be willing to participate in national defence if Finland was attacked.
Still, Kivinen welcomed Finland’s decision to apply to join Nato. Finland and fellow Nordic country Sweden are in talks with Turkey to discuss its opposition to their applications. Ankara has been angered by what it says is Helsinki and Stockholm’s support for Kurdish militants and arms embargos on Turkey.
Nato membership would allow Finland to boost its early warning capacity by being part of the alliance’s joint airspace control, Kivinen said. Finland would also benefit from the deterrence of being part of an alliance in which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members, he said.
Nevertheless, he said, “The main responsibility for Finland’s defence will still be borne by Finland.”